Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 2.840619 3.918909 5.472002 7.959345 1.202015e+01 18.739613 3.155260e+01
2025-03-16 1.831806 2.913279 4.801475 8.636462 1.713097e+01 37.957177 1.069693e+02
2025-03-23 1.307254 2.334170 4.445664 9.789205 2.601513e+01 89.932624 5.907031e+02
2025-03-30 0.960865 1.887765 4.080864 10.888325 3.959154e+01 244.709411 8.766107e+03
2025-04-06 0.679362 1.428069 3.390864 10.536808 5.063331e+01 595.993926 1.724945e+06
2025-04-13 0.485895 1.074681 2.745262 9.669249 5.983233e+01 1471.167123 NaN
2025-04-20 0.386574 0.906612 2.526480 10.415449 9.180966e+01 9528.012586 NaN
2025-04-27 0.325887 0.812301 2.486343 12.280605 1.727977e+02 879677.858875 NaN
2025-05-04 0.280640 0.740759 2.484672 14.819339 3.721815e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.236560 0.652002 2.348682 16.378949 7.319720e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.192730 0.544856 2.048573 15.759139 1.073210e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.156346 0.449252 1.736806 14.267420 1.330568e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.135610 0.403596 1.658582 15.821236 3.432774e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.117693 0.360972 1.564923 17.126689 1.015698e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.104572 0.331362 1.524191 19.572961 6.175432e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.092999 0.303183 1.470032 21.926981 1.079454e+06 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.079841 0.263502 1.307468 20.874044 1.137158e+07 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.068104 0.226066 1.134039 18.707328 7.604212e+07 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.061427 0.208213 1.087065 20.272576 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.057113 0.199159 1.098734 24.471237 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.053567 0.192264 1.123241 30.425056 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.049276 0.180304 1.095201 34.129576 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.044036 0.162087 0.996489 32.472206 NaN NaN NaN